Business leaders, investors, and policy makers make decisions in the face of an uncertain future of what will, might and might not occur. Forecasting is a technique that aims to predict the direction of future trends. It relies on data from the past and present and an analysis of trends. Forecasters use qualitative and quantitative techniques depending on the nature of the problem and the information available. Quantitative techniques are often preferred for their rigour and for producing forecasts that are robust, objective and transparent.
Alphametrik has developed world leading software (TIMM) specifically designed to forecast forestry markets to support investment decisions, risk assessments, and policy making for forestry and related processing industries. TIMM models market processes to project the physical characteristics of forest inventory, wood supply and prices at a regional and sub regional level. By linking the biological and economic components of timber supply, the model allows investigations into a wide range of futures.
TIMM can be applied to most forestry markets. Past applications have included New Zealand, Australia, Chile, Brazil, US South and North American timber markets.
We provide log price forecasts to forest managers and investors for forest acquisition and long-term planning. We also forecast timber supply to support mill owners in their strategic planning and investment decisions, and facilitate infrastructural planning. We provide forecasts of forest inventory and growth for tracking future carbon sequestration and emissions from forestry activities. We use TIMM in combination with other macroeconomic models to generate forecasts that are independent, objective and transparent.
TIMM provides a rigorous and consistent structure for forecasting and scenario testing. It can be used to test the impacts of economic volatility and shocks and address questions on the impacts of end-use demand, shipping costs and exchange rates on timber supply and prices. TIMM can also be used to investigate the effects of harvesting decisions for individual estates or ownership groups on timber markets and prices.
TIMM provides a framework to investigate and quantify the impacts of policies around growing, harvesting, distribution and consumption of timber products. TIMM incorporates key biological and management variables that determine forest productivity and growth, which, among others, allows testing of specific scenarios around productivity enhancement, forest expansion, bio-security threats and incursions, and climate change driven events.
TIMM will also be made available to subscribers as a web-based application. You can register your interest and ensure you are kept informed on its release by emailing: